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Midwest Marketing Solutions
September 5, 2019

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Pleased with progress in Japan trade discussions

The National Pork Producers Council and National Cattlemen's Beef Association are pleased with the progress in the U.S. and Japan trade discussions, saying it will level the playing field with international competitors.

Japan is the top market for U.S. beef and 25 percent of U.S. pork export went to Japan last year. With a signed agreement, Iowa State University economist Dermot Hayes estimates the U.S. pork exports to Japan will grow from $1.6 billion in 2018 to more than $2.2 billion in the next 15 years.

Corn analysis

Corn closed the week $.01 1/4 higher. Last week, private exporters announced sale of 328,000 mts of corn to Mexico for 2019/20 marketing year.

In the weekly export inspections report; corn inspections totaled 25.2 mb for the week ending Thursday, August 22, 2019, below the 67.8 mb needed each week to reach USDA's export estimate of 2.100 bb.

Inspections for 2018-19 now total 1.842.3 bb, down 17 percent from the previous year. In the weekly crop conditions report; corn rated good/excellent as of August 25th cam in at 57 percent versus 56 percent last week and 68 percent last year. Major producing states with improving conditions were Illinois with 49 percent (+7 percent ), Missouri 39 percent (+3 percent ), South Dakota 63 percent (+1 percent ), and Michigan 44 percent (+4 percent ).

Major producing states with declining conditions were Ohio 30 percent (-2 percent ), Wisconsin 61 percent (- 2 percent ).

The dough stage came in at 71 percent versus 91 percent last year and the dent stage was at 27percent versus 59percent last year and the five year average at 46 percent .

Strategy and outlook

Producers should use more option strategies this year than in previous years to provide greater marketing flexibility.

Soybeans analysis

Soybeans closed the week $.12 higher. Last week, private exporters did not announce any export sales.

In the weekly export inspections report, soybean inspections totaled 35.3 mb, above the 31.9 mb needed weekly to reach USDA's export estimate of 1.700 bb.

Inspections for 2018-19 now total 1.633 bb, down 20 percent from the previous year.

In the weekly crop conditions report; the soybean crop condition report showed the good/excellent ratings as of August 25th at 55 percent versus 53 percent last week and 66 percent last year.

Major producing states with improving conditions were Illinois 50 percent (+10percent ), Iowa 62 percent (+1 percent ), Kansas 53 percent (+5 percent ), Missouri 48 percent (+4 percent ), Nebraska 73 percent (+1 percent ), Ohio 32 percent (+3percent ), and South Dakota 58 percent (+2 percent ).

Soybeans setting pods came in at 91percent versus 85percent last week and compared to 98 percent last year.

Strategy and outlook

Large carryover stocks gives the market some cushion in case of lower yields.

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Midwest Market Solutions and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Midwest Market Solution's Research Department. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Midwest Market Solutions believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Brian Hoops can be reached at (605) 660-1155.

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